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Leaving the EU without a deal could cost almost three-quarters of a ...

Leaving the EU without a deal could cost almost three-quarters of a million workers in Britain their jobs, but more in some places than others, a new study by the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex has warned. 

Research by Dr Ilona Serwicka and Professor L. Alan Winters suggests that a ‘no deal’ Brexit could cost the Cities of London and Westminster parliamentary constituency an estimated 42,400 jobs, because of its high density of jobs and the impact of a no deal Brexit on the country’s financial sector. But 41,250 of the holders of these jobs live in other constituencies. 

The residents in Prime Minister Theresa May’s Maidenhead constituency would lose around 1,700 jobs in a no deal Brexit, while 950 residents in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s North East Somerset constituency could be out of work if the UK left without a deal. Dr Serwicka, a Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex, said: “This research makes it very clear that both soft and hard forms of Brexit, and in particular, a ‘no deal’ Brexit, will have a negative impact on the lives of residents the length and breadth of Britain. "Of course, we cannot say for certain that this number of job losses will definitely happen, as employers may choose to reduce number of hours or wages rather than cut their workforce, but our analysis shows which areas of the country will take the biggest hits.” 

The analysis is based on estimates of the effects of a ‘no deal’ Brexit on output and employment in different sectors of the UK economy, on statistics on the composition of employment in each constituency, and on the extent to which people live and work in different constituencies. 

The estimates are based on 2017 estimates of the effects of Brexit by sector which imply losses of GDP of around 3% for a ‘no deal’ Brexit - although recent aggregate estimates, including the Government’s own, are approximately twice as large. 

It warns that under a no deal Brexit, a total of 745,650 British jobs could be lost including 148,050 jobs in London, 80,950 jobs in the North West, 63,500 jobs in Scotland and 28,600 jobs in Wales. 

Large commuter constituencies such as Watford, home to Conservative MP Richard Harrington, and Reading East, home to Labour MP Matt Rodda, are among the top ten constituencies predicted to see the biggest job losses among residents. 

L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, said: “As constituency MPs vote on the Withdrawal Agreement, they will have very difficult decisions to make knowing that the livelihoods of many hundreds of their constituents will rest in their hands.”